Politics of Mozambique

It must have been the tech titan of Apple who once said that creation was a messy affair. That view has been especially true of Mozambique since October’s presidential elections. The overwhelming consensus, at least by the standards of social media today, is that the results do not corroborate the will of the people.

In a game of cat and mouse now approaching two months, the leader of the opposition; in reality an independent candidate who has often played political musical chairs has held the country at ransom. A man of the people, a president already in some circles, he has been able to spur the energy of a youthful and livid population into various forms civil unrest and disobedience. His demands are no less than electoral truth.

There is much at stake, Mozambique is an economy that should be raking in billions of dollars from mineral exports, energy and extensive transportation networks, yet it is one of the poorest countries in Africa. The encumbrance to the economy and the situation of the politicians being at loggerheads with each other has many worried. It is not an economy that can afford to hunker, shut down and survive a bad political storm – “our daily bread” is not only recited but lived in the flesh each day.

All eyes are on the Constitutional Court, a supreme court that now has the responsibility of determining the final results. The announcement could either break or make the country. Indications hitherto do not suggest that the fully captured institution will declare results favourable to the public.

When countries are at critical junctures, they have the most likelihood of breaking from the past. That detail was revealed early on by Venancio Mondlane when he embarked on his “Twenty Five Days of Terror” crusade to overthrow FRELIMO which has been in power for almost 50 years.

FRELIMO once the political starling of the former Portuguese colony established itself into power in 1975. The watershed for that was the Carnation Revolution of the previous year and the negotiated handover of the colonies to liberation movements. Except for a few decades of stellar GDP growth, development of the country has been held by extractive institutions which have been moulded to serve a nascent elite.

History tells us that critical junctures are far more determinant of changes, either positive or negative. This is so because changes in other circumstances are often thwarted by those who are wealthy or wield political power and are fearful of losing their place. They will and can do everything to maintain the yoke of power.

The people of Mozambique wait anxiously for the results to be announced on 23rd December.

It has been 38 years since Mozambique’s first president died when his plane crashed one clear night near the mountains of Mbuzini. The sentiment of loss was palpable across the continent and if it was not, FRELIMO certainly did put out a showstopper of a state funeral to honour the man who unshackled the country from 500 years of Portuguese rule.

But more recent reflections of Machel suggest that the public’s perception is bittersweet. When the Portuguese flag was lowered on midnight of June 25th 1975, Mozambicans were convinced that an unheralded and prosperous future was within arm’s reach. The euphoria of change; persuasive catchphrases such as “A Luta Continua” belied the suffering that was to come.

Historians agree that the country made significant gains in the period 1975-1980, however, Machel was not content solely with a liberated Mozambique. He had turned his gaze over the borders to Zimbabwe and later South Africa, two veritable opponents led by minority white governments.

South Africa did not accept another state meddling in its affairs particularly as it tried to keep the ANC out. This resulted in it throwing its military prowess behind RENAMO. Birthed by the Rhodesian government and made up of a hodgepodge of disaffected people, it was swift in destabilizing Mozambique.

RENAMO’s main tactic was destabilization of the economy and the infrastructure that underpinned it. During the colonial area, railways and ports had been developed to allow transit out of Mozambique and also into it to the hinterland states of Zimbabwe and Malawi which generated enormous wealth for the country.

By 1983, Mozambique was in a ruinous state. The economy had hobbled along in the first years of independence but the civil war dashed hopes of returning it to a functional state. Trade deficit widened and the agricultural sector collapsed after two years of a particularly hard draught.

In Maputo Machel looked on as the country burned down, continuing the rhetoric of increasing productivity and publicly scolding RENAMO’s guerilla tactics. But it was clear to the public that FRELIMO and Mozambique were losing the war. What had started out as a child of Machel’s idealism – the liberation of Africa south of the Sahara was too costly of an investment.

With pressure mounting, the Nkomati Accord of 1984 demonstrated that Machel could be a pragmatic leader. In the agreement Mozambique would stop giving refuge to exiled members of the ANC and South Africa would halt its support to RENAMO. Much to Mozambique’s devastation, South Africa did not keep up its end of the agreement and the war continued.

At what was the height of the cold war and with resources scant from Moscow, Machel went to the United States in September of 1985. Although conservatives in US had long lobbied then president Ronald Reagan to provide support to RENAMO, the US continued its position of “constructive engagement”.

If there was an inkling of hope that Machel could steer the country aright, it was delivered in the content of his speech that day at the South Portico of the White House. For the first time, Machel acknowledged that he was ready to accept private investment in the country. A feat of sorts for a hardline socialist. He explained that the country was endowed with vast mineral riches and looking for a partner to engage in exploration.

Despite his softening stance towards the West, Machel remained stubborn in the consolidation of the frontline states – those states working to undo apartheid South Africa’s stronghold in the region. When Malawi refused to join the SADCC, an irate Machel made plans to shut the borders and fire missiles into the country. Press reports of the time suggest that relations between Mozambique and South Africa hit an all-time low and that Machel was aware of a plot being devised to kill him.

Politicians and entertainers often share the same fate which is that while flying high on the back of good times their fall is often sudden and dramatic

Years after the crash, the exact conditions of the downing of the plane are not clear. Initial reports had indicated that the Soviet pilots were drunk; other reports suggested that the South Africans developed a moveable navigation beacon to falsely guide the plane into the mountains. Even more sinisterly, the beacon at the airport in Maputo was switched off with the collaboration of Mozambican generals who wanted Machel dead.

The independence of Zimbabwe in 1980 deluded Machel into thinking he could repeat the scenario in South Africa. The highlights of 1984 and 1985 showed that Machel was trying to turn the tide but his adversaries had already charted a different path.

Machel left a lasting legacy of activism. Many of nation’s youth continue to listen to his speeches often in want of that which is missing in the political landscape of the country today. Although he had lead a movement that successfully overthrew colonialism, he spent the remaining years in office preoccupied in waging wars which brought about severe economic hardship and decline.

Politicians and entertainers often share the same fate which is that while flying high on the back of good times their fall is often sudden and dramatic.